Gary Marcus

Rank 32 of 47
|
Score -1
4/2/2024, 10:09:30 PM
X
In reply to:
Derya Unutmaz, MD
@DeryaTR_
·
227d
@GaryMarcus Also difference between 3.5 and 4 much more than double, maybe 10x
Derya Unutmaz, MD
@DeryaTR_
·
227d
@GaryMarcus I don’t have that data either, I speculated for 6 months since Elon Musk claimed it was like 10x - but even doubling every year is still big exponential. You get 1000x in 10 years.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
227d
@DeryaTR_ It has not doubled in capabilities every six months. Any measure showing that 4 is double 3.5, won’t show that turbo doubled 4 in six months. By any measure I know 4 was a big advance but turbo was no doubling of that advance. Nor was Gemini Pro, Claude’s best, etc. Nothing now…
Derya Unutmaz, MD
@DeryaTR_
·
227d
@GaryMarcus Well GPT-4 improved with turbo last November, and we should have GPT-4.5 soon. Even doubling in capabilities every 6 months would be a massive exponential. https://openai.com/blog/new-mode…
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
227d
@DeryaTR_ Gpt-4 was released a year ago; billions have been spent unsuccessfully trying to exceed it. Surely that’s evidential.
Derya Unutmaz, MD
@DeryaTR_
·
227d
@GaryMarcus There has been a massive leap from GPT-3.5 a year ago to GPT-4 today; not to mention that Claude 3 is already better than GPT-4 in some aspects. There are also significant applications of these technology to scientific questions, which is accelerating discoveries exponentially.

The statement is part of a conversation about the development and capabilities of AI models, specifically the progression from GPT-3.5 to GPT-4 and beyond. The tone is analytical and somewhat skeptical, with the intent to challenge the claim of exponential growth in AI capabilities. The content focuses on the rate of technological advancement in AI models.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not appear to cause harm with words or actions. [+1]
  2. Principle 2:
    I will respect the privacy and dignity of others and will not engage in cyberbullying, harassment, or hate speech.
    The statement respects the privacy and dignity of others and does not engage in cyberbullying, harassment, or hate speech. [+1]
  3. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement does not directly promote understanding, empathy, and compassion, as it is a technical discussion.
  4. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive criticism without personal attacks, focusing on the argument rather than the individual. [+1]
  5. Principle 5:
    I will acknowledge and correct my mistakes.
    There is no indication of a mistake being made or corrected in the statement.
  6. Principle 6:
    I will use my influence for the betterment of society.
    The statement contributes to a broader understanding of AI development, which could be seen as using influence for the betterment of society. [+1]
  7. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement upholds the principles of free speech and uses the platform responsibly, engaging in a factual debate. [+1]