Gary Marcus

Rank 12 of 47
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Score 83
5/22/2024, 1:27:20 PM
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In reply to:
David Manheim
@davidmanheim
·
623d
@GaryMarcus Who was claiming that scaling laws let them predict capabilities? They predict loss, but AFAICT, no-one was claiming they were substantively sure what capabilities would emerge from scaling.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
623d
2020-2023: With scaling laws we can precisely predict the capabilities of our future models

2024: Oops, we have fallen off the curve, but we just saw a demo that I haven’t actually tried yet that has a bunch of other different stuff that looks like it will be cool! https://twitter.com/GaryMarcus/s…
Chuck Russell
@cichuck
·
623d
@davetroy @GaryMarcus The 'lack of any kind exponential progress' (linear) isn't a plateau.

using 'new input/output channels' and implementing new 'use cases' is the very definition of a transformative tech.

The statement and the image provided are part of a broader discussion on the progress and capabilities of large language models (LLMs) in artificial intelligence. The conversation involves multiple participants debating the rate of improvement and the predictability of AI capabilities, touching on public concerns about technological advancements and their implications.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement and the image do not appear to cause harm. They are part of a technical discussion about AI capabilities and progress. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement promotes understanding by providing data on the rate of improvement in LLMs, contributing to the broader discussion on AI progress. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue by responding to a previous claim with data, without resorting to personal attacks or ad hominem arguments. [+1]
  4. Principle 6:
    I will use my influence for the betterment of society.
    The statement uses the platform to contribute to the betterment of society by engaging in a meaningful discussion about AI progress and its implications. [+1]