Gary Marcus

Rank 19 of 47
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Score 64
9/30/2024, 4:10:44 PM
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In reply to:
Leon Lang
@Lang__Leon
·
287d
@GaryMarcus @jam3scampbell What makes you so confident? There’s a chance that inference compute scaling is a “real thing” and that letting models think for minutes, hours, or days, while self-correcting, could solve all of these issues. I wouldn’t know how to rule that out by 2027.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
287d
@jam3scampbell Meaning, of course: AGI by 2027 is not plausible. We are too far from reliability, sound reasoning, planning, etc, and still saddled with black boxes that regularly hallucinate, etc
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
287d
@jam3scampbell 2027 is not plausible.
James Campbell
@jam3scampbell
·
288d
humans suck at generalization too btw.

for example, most ppl fail to generalize from “AGI by 2027 seems strikingly plausible” to “holy shit maybe I shouldn’t treat everything else in my life as business-as-usual”

The statement constitutes public discourse as it engages in a substantive debate about the reliability and future of artificial general intelligence (AGI), addressing concerns about its current limitations and potential advancements.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not appear to cause harm with words and actions. It focuses on the technical aspects and limitations of AGI without resorting to harmful language or personal attacks. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement aims to promote understanding by providing specific criticisms and concerns about AGI's current capabilities. However, it could be more empathetic in addressing the hopes and perspectives of others. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive criticism by addressing specific technical concerns and countering the optimism of others with reasoned arguments. It does not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments. [+2]