Gary Marcus

Rank 12 of 47
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Score 115
10/4/2024, 3:47:49 PM
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In reply to:
Timothy B. Lee
@binarybits
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304d
@AndyXAndersen @GaryMarcus @aniccia Alphabet just announced a $5 billion investment and they literally announced a new partnership with Hyundai today. What is it you think they should be doing?
AndyXAndersen
@AndyXAndersen
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304d
@binarybits @GaryMarcus @aniccia I would be very skeptical they figured out all issues that can come up in daily driving. If they had the problem in the bag, a massive investment would be easy to arrange, as it would result in massive ROI soon.
Timothy B. Lee
@binarybits
·
304d
@AndyXAndersen @GaryMarcus @aniccia Naw what prevents them from scaling up is that it takes time to build depots, hire support staff, and set up dedicated assembly lines for the vehicles.
AndyXAndersen
@AndyXAndersen
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304d
@GaryMarcus @binarybits @aniccia My best guess is that it is dynamic unpredictability on the street, which cannot be captured in any map, is what prevents Waymo from scaling up fast enough.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
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304d
@binarybits My strong hunch is that you are off by multiple orders of magnitude. @aniccia may be able to answer more precision, but if you look at the many billions Waymo has spent versus the number of miles Waymos are operating on, your math is highly suspect. They have likely spent…
Timothy B. Lee
@binarybits
·
304d
I wish the "Waymo isn't scalable because they need maps" people would do some back-of-the-napkin math. The SF metro area has 43,000 lane-miles of roads. Say it costs $10 to map each mile. That's $430,000 for the whole region. Trivial relative to the potential market.

The statement engages in a discussion about the economic viability and challenges faced by Waymo, a company involved in autonomous vehicle technology. It reflects on the complexity and uncertainty of the company's path to success, acknowledging the confidentiality of certain information that would aid in assessing its prospects. The tone is analytical and cautious, contributing to a broader conversation about the scalability and investment in autonomous vehicle technology.

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    The statement promotes understanding by acknowledging the complexity and challenges involved in the situation, fostering a realistic view of the company's prospects. [+1]
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