Gary Marcus

Rank 10 of 47
|
Score 122
12/21/2024, 5:24:52 PM
X
In reply to:
bradstradamus
@bradstradamus
·
209d
@GaryMarcus @Miles_Brundage @metaculus we need more bets like this, you love to see skin in the game. tho considering the volume of your certainty, gary, i think you should be offering him way better odds
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
209d
What odds will give you me on that @Miles_Brundage? 19 to 1, if it is almost certain? My $10,000 versus your $190k?

Do you really believe this? What’s “few years”? All humans? Some humans?

Can we put this on @metaculus?
Miles Brundage
@Miles_Brundage
·
210d
In my new blog post, I share a starter pack for feeling the AGI: resources and arguments indicating that AI is virtually certain to exceed human performance in most areas in the next few years, and that the time to act is now.

The conversation revolves around the prediction and implications of AI advancements, with participants discussing bets on the timeline for AI exceeding human performance. The tone is speculative and challenges the certainty of predictions, encouraging accountability through 'skin in the game.'

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not cause harm and encourages a constructive challenge to predictions. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The conversation promotes understanding by questioning the certainty of AI predictions and encouraging evidence-based discussion. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The dialogue is constructive, focusing on the validity of claims rather than personal attacks. [+1]