Gary Marcus

Rank 11 of 47
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Score 106
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
210d
What odds will give you me on that @Miles_Brundage? 19 to 1, if it is almost certain? My $10,000 versus your $190k?

Do you really believe this? What’s “few years”? All humans? Some humans?

Can we put this on @metaculus?
12/21/2024, 5:25:51 PM
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In reply to:
Miles Brundage
@Miles_Brundage
·
211d
In my new blog post, I share a starter pack for feeling the AGI: resources and arguments indicating that AI is virtually certain to exceed human performance in most areas in the next few years, and that the time to act is now.

The statement 'let’s put some money on it' is a response to a discussion about the future of AI and its potential to exceed human performance. The tone is somewhat challenging and skeptical, suggesting a bet to test the certainty of the claim. This engages with the public discourse on AI development and policy.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not directly cause harm but challenges the certainty of the claim, which can be seen as a form of constructive skepticism.
  2. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in a form of dialogue by questioning the claim, though it could be seen as slightly confrontational. [-1]