Gary Marcus

Rank 14 of 47
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Score 83
12/22/2024, 1:37:55 AM
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In reply to:
Miles Brundage
@Miles_Brundage
·
375d
@GaryMarcus @metaculus I don't feel comfortable with such large amounts of money for various reasons (namely it just feels obscene given all the good we can do with our $). But sure, I'll take those odds.

Let's say:
- $1k vs. $19k
- List of benchmarks that you have previously articulated, minus…
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
376d
What odds will give you me on that @Miles_Brundage? 19 to 1, if it is almost certain? My $10,000 versus your $190k?

Do you really believe this? What’s “few years”? All humans? Some humans?

Can we put this on @metaculus?
Miles Brundage
@Miles_Brundage
·
376d
In my new blog post, I share a starter pack for feeling the AGI: resources and arguments indicating that AI is virtually certain to exceed human performance in most areas in the next few years, and that the time to act is now.

The conversation involves a discussion about the future of AI and its implications, which is a public issue. The tone is somewhat informal and involves a bet on the likelihood of AI developments. The participants engage in a dialogue about the ethical considerations of money and AI predictions.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not cause harm and acknowledges the ethical implications of money in AI development. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The conversation promotes understanding by discussing the implications of AI advancements. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The dialogue is constructive, with participants engaging in a respectful exchange of ideas. [+1]