Gary Marcus

Rank 14 of 47
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Score 83
12/22/2024, 1:38:38 AM
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In reply to:
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
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375d
@Miles_Brundage @metaculus My list is a lot narrower than what you said above, you realize?

But good man for mostly standing behind what you say, and I accept.
Miles Brundage
@Miles_Brundage
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375d
@GaryMarcus @metaculus I don't feel comfortable with such large amounts of money for various reasons (namely it just feels obscene given all the good we can do with our $). But sure, I'll take those odds.

Let's say:
- $1k vs. $19k
- List of benchmarks that you have previously articulated, minus…
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
376d
What odds will give you me on that @Miles_Brundage? 19 to 1, if it is almost certain? My $10,000 versus your $190k?

Do you really believe this? What’s “few years”? All humans? Some humans?

Can we put this on @metaculus?
Miles Brundage
@Miles_Brundage
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376d
In my new blog post, I share a starter pack for feeling the AGI: resources and arguments indicating that AI is virtually certain to exceed human performance in most areas in the next few years, and that the time to act is now.

The conversation revolves around a public debate on the future of AI and its potential to exceed human performance, which is a significant public issue. The discussion includes a proposed bet on the likelihood of this outcome, reflecting differing opinions on AI's trajectory.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The conversation does not appear to cause harm; it is a debate on AI's future. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The discussion promotes understanding by engaging with different perspectives on AI. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The participants engage in constructive dialogue, though the mention of large sums of money could be seen as provocative.