Gary Marcus

Rank 12 of 47
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Score 83
12/31/2024, 10:31:47 AM
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In reply to:
Boaz Barak
@boazbaraktcs
·
394d
@Miles_Brundage @tamaybes @GaryMarcus @elonmusk I think it’s quite possible to have “synthetic cognition that is as broadly flexible and grounded as human cognition” without having it be Pullitzer/Oscar/Nobel quality.
Miles Brundage
@Miles_Brundage
·
394d
@tamaybes @GaryMarcus @elonmusk Yeah FWIW I think the bet prob says more about me than Gary but in any case it seems to be going up on various prediction markets, which will yield more info on prevailing views.
Tamay Besiroglu
@tamaybes
·
394d
@GaryMarcus @Miles_Brundage @elonmusk Sure, but an implied probability of 1:10 means your bet is consistent with you assigning 90% to these conditions being met (maybe slightly under that given counterparty risk, etc.) That doesn’t seem particularly skeptical to me.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
394d
@tamaybes @Miles_Brundage @elonmusk p.s. a different way to put it:. I *do* expect significant progress, of some sort, but the bet was about something stronger: claims by Miles, Elon and others that would have AI equal to or better than most or all people at virtually everything pretty soon. In my view, informed…
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
394d
@tamaybes @Miles_Brundage @elonmusk It might help if you read the two essays of mine that were background to the bet, both bets to Elon Musk, linked in the statement of the bet, as well as the statement itself: https://garymarcus.substack.com/….
Tamay Besiroglu
@tamaybes
·
394d
@GaryMarcus @Miles_Brundage @elonmusk There seems to be a disconnect between your AI skepticism and the extreme bar in your bet—Pulitzer/Oscar/Nobel feats with little/no human involvement + 1:10 odds in your favor. These terms leaves ample room for substantial AI progress.

The statement is part of a public discourse on the future capabilities of AI, engaging in a debate about AI's potential to match or exceed human cognitive abilities. The tone is analytical and seeks to clarify the terms of a bet related to AI progress.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not use harmful language and maintains a neutral tone, adhering to the principle of doing no harm. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement aims to clarify and promote understanding of the terms of the bet, aligning with the principle of promoting understanding and empathy. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue by addressing the terms of the bet without resorting to personal attacks, adhering to the principle of constructive criticism. [+1]