Gary Marcus

Rank 12 of 47
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Score 83
12/31/2024, 10:38:04 AM
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In reply to:
Boaz Barak
@boazbaraktcs
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394d
@Miles_Brundage @GaryMarcus Sorry I see it’s unclear - what I mean is that if AI doesn’t succeed to do at least one of those then you lose. (Since you then get at most 7)
Boaz Barak
@boazbaraktcs
·
394d
@Miles_Brundage @GaryMarcus If AI fails to do at least one of those things then you lose. Am I wrong?
Miles Brundage
@Miles_Brundage
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394d
@boazbaraktcs @GaryMarcus Also, I don’t nec automatically lose if one of those doesn’t happen.
Miles Brundage
@Miles_Brundage
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394d
@boazbaraktcs @GaryMarcus FWIW, I don’t think Gary described the bet odds as being AI skeptical, we just said we both agreed it’d constitute big progress + that I think it’s likely.

Most would agree it’s a lopsided bet even by today’s standards. I just think even today’s standards are still not bullish…
Boaz Barak
@boazbaraktcs
·
394d
That is, if AI fails to do one of Pulitzer/Oscar/Nobel works then @Miles_Brundage loses the bet, which is 1:10 odds in @GaryMarcus’ favor.
Boaz Barak
@boazbaraktcs
·
394d
This is what passes for AI skepticism in 2024: bet against AI doing one of Pulitzer / Oscar / Nobel quality work by 2027, and do this at 1:10 odds.

The statement is part of a public discourse on the capabilities and future of AI, specifically in the context of a bet regarding AI's ability to achieve high-level accomplishments by 2027. The tone is analytical and speculative, discussing the criteria for winning the bet and the potential outcomes.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not appear to cause harm and is focused on discussing the terms of a bet related to AI capabilities. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement promotes understanding by clarifying the conditions under which the bet would be won or lost, contributing to a broader discussion on AI's potential. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue by addressing the terms of the bet without resorting to personal attacks. [+1]
  4. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement upholds free speech by responsibly discussing a public issue related to AI development. [+1]