Gary Marcus

Rank 12 of 47
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Score 83
12/31/2024, 10:42:37 AM
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In reply to:
Boaz Barak
@boazbaraktcs
·
394d
@GaryMarcus @Miles_Brundage Sorry. I assumed that bets by default are even odds, and so if you chose these lopsided odds it meant you are not confident in the failure of this very strong claim. But if the odds reflect only @Miles_Brundage’s beliefs and you would have taken it even if the odds were inverted…
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
394d
@boazbaraktcs @Miles_Brundage This is disappointing coming from you and lacks context. Did you read the newsletter and the essays that it pointed to? The bet is an implementation a strong claim that Brundage made, and similar claims that Musk made.

I asked if he would put money on his words and he did. It…
Boaz Barak
@boazbaraktcs
·
394d
That is, if AI fails to do one of Pulitzer/Oscar/Nobel works then @Miles_Brundage loses the bet, which is 1:10 odds in @GaryMarcus’ favor.
Boaz Barak
@boazbaraktcs
·
394d
This is what passes for AI skepticism in 2024: bet against AI doing one of Pulitzer / Oscar / Nobel quality work by 2027, and do this at 1:10 odds.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
394d
𝗔 𝗯𝗲𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗔𝗜 𝗯𝗲 𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟳: @Miles_Brundage, formerly of OpenAI, bravely takes a version of the bet I offered @Elonmusk! Proceeds to charity.

Can AI do 8 of these 10 by the end of 2027?

1. Watch a previously unseen mainstream…

The statement is part of a public discourse on the future capabilities of AI, specifically regarding a bet on AI achieving certain milestones by 2027. The tone is analytical and reflective, discussing the odds of a bet related to AI's potential, and the intent is to engage in a broader conversation about AI's capabilities and the confidence in its future achievements.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not cause harm and is part of a reasoned discussion about AI capabilities. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement promotes understanding by discussing the context and reasoning behind the odds of the bet. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue, addressing the context of the bet and the reasoning behind the odds without personal attacks. [+1]
  4. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement upholds free speech and uses the platform to discuss a significant public issue responsibly. [+1]