Gary Marcus

Rank 11 of 47
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Score 83
12/31/2024, 12:07:08 PM
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In reply to:
Tamay Besiroglu
@tamaybes
·
394d
@boazbaraktcs @GaryMarcus @Miles_Brundage @GaryMarcus with what odds would you expect to break-even on this bet?
Boaz Barak
@boazbaraktcs
·
394d
@GaryMarcus @Miles_Brundage Thank you for the correction. Sorry for misinterpreting the odds as reflecting your beliefs.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
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394d
@boazbaraktcs @Miles_Brundage Absent the context of commonly made strong statements, I would have definitely taken less lopsided odds. (In fact I already insisted we make them a bit less lopsided, again my own interest.) But I was pleased to get the zeitgeist on record.

I think even the easier tasks are…
Boaz Barak
@boazbaraktcs
·
394d
@GaryMarcus @Miles_Brundage Sorry. I assumed that bets by default are even odds, and so if you chose these lopsided odds it meant you are not confident in the failure of this very strong claim. But if the odds reflect only @Miles_Brundage’s beliefs and you would have taken it even if the odds were inverted…
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
394d
@boazbaraktcs @Miles_Brundage This is disappointing coming from you and lacks context. Did you read the newsletter and the essays that it pointed to? The bet is an implementation a strong claim that Brundage made, and similar claims that Musk made.

I asked if he would put money on his words and he did. It…
Boaz Barak
@boazbaraktcs
·
394d
That is, if AI fails to do one of Pulitzer/Oscar/Nobel works then @Miles_Brundage loses the bet, which is 1:10 odds in @GaryMarcus’ favor.

The statement is part of a conversation about a bet related to AI achieving significant accomplishments by 2030. It reflects on the feasibility and potential timeline of these achievements, indicating skepticism about the rapidity of such advancements. The tone is speculative and analytical, focusing on the likelihood of achieving these milestones.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not cause harm and is speculative in nature, discussing potential outcomes without negative implications. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement promotes understanding by engaging in a discussion about the feasibility of technological advancements, encouraging a realistic view of progress. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue, responding to a question about odds and expectations without personal attacks. [+1]