Gary Marcus

Rank 11 of 47

Score 83

@peterwildeford @Miles_Brundage @elonmusk The biographies one is viable (should have maybe been more specific about length); there’s a chance for the videos and novels. I think the rest are hard in three years, if the threshold is reliability.

12/31/2024, 12:57:30 PM

In reply to:

Peter Wildeford 🇺🇸

@peterwildeford

394d

@GaryMarcus @Miles_Brundage @elonmusk . @GaryMarcus outside the bet itself, what's your general median expectation of how many of these will be realized?

The way I read you I think you'd be expecting ~0/10? But the "8/10" threshold is high.

Gary Marcus

@GaryMarcus

395d

𝗔 𝗯𝗲𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗔𝗜 𝗯𝗲 𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟳: @Miles_Brundage, formerly of OpenAI, bravely takes a version of the bet I offered @Elonmusk! Proceeds to charity.

Can AI do 8 of these 10 by the end of 2027?

1. Watch a previously unseen mainstream…

The statement is part of a public discourse on the future capabilities of AI, specifically discussing the likelihood of AI achieving certain milestones by 2027. The tone is analytical and speculative, focusing on the feasibility of AI tasks within a given timeframe.

Principle 1:
I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
The statement does not cause harm and is focused on a technical discussion, adhering to the principle. [+1]
Principle 3:
I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
The statement promotes understanding by engaging in a thoughtful analysis of AI capabilities, aligning with the principle. [+1]
Principle 4:
I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
The statement engages in constructive dialogue without personal attacks, adhering to the principle. [+1]