Gary Marcus

Rank 20 of 47
|
Score 54
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
477d
Prediction: By end of 2024 we will see
• 7-10 GPT-4 level models
• No massive advance (no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5)
• Price wars
• Very little moat for anyone
• No robust solution to hallucinations
• Modest lasting corporate adoption
• Modest profits, split 7-10 ways
4/20/2025, 8:45:38 PM
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In reply to:
Nathan Labenz
@labenz
·
71d
@GaryMarcus While I wouldn’t want to trade prediction records from the last 24 months, I do recognize that you earn some Bayes points here

Notably o3 represents a pretty dramatic trend reversal on hallucinations - I wonder if that signals the start of a new trend or will prove a blip
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
71d
@labenz Who could have predicted this, @labenz?
Nathan Labenz
@labenz
·
74d
Making up lovely AirBnB host details really limits o3's utility as a travel agent

At least it came clean when questioned I guess? 🤷‍♂️🙃

The conversation involves a discussion about AI predictions, specifically regarding the development and reliability of AI models like ChatGPT. The tone is analytical and speculative, focusing on the potential trends and challenges in AI technology.

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