Gary Marcus

Rank 20 of 47
|
Score 57
5/10/2025, 1:51:11 AM
X
In reply to:
Daniel Litt
@littmath
·
29d
@GaryMarcus @Wasgo @polynoamial I’ve put money on the line that specific strong claims about AI capabilities are overstated (see e.g. here: https://manifold.markets/TamayBe…). But I also think you’re substantially understating them.
Daniel Litt
@littmath
·
29d
@GaryMarcus @Wasgo @polynoamial I think it’s a stupid graph. Not sure why you’re asking me to comment on dumb ai hype when I’m discussing a specific (if slightly imprecise) claim about scaling.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
29d
@littmath @Wasgo @polynoamial So where do you fall here?
Vlad Haltakov
@haltakov
·
29d
Unpopular opinion - we are not seeing exponential growth in AI, but rather something more like an S-curve.

While an S-curve has places that look exponential it doesn't go on forever, but saturates. This is what we see with foundational models already.
Daniel Litt
@littmath
·
29d
@GaryMarcus @Wasgo @polynoamial I was out here pointing out it was BS.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
29d
@littmath @Wasgo @polynoamial Where were you when 1000s of influencers a day were chanting “exponential”?
Daniel Litt
@littmath
·
29d
@GaryMarcus @Wasgo @polynoamial This is all consistent with logarithmic growth, which is very slow!

The statement is part of a public discourse on AI development and predictions. It engages in a debate about the future capabilities of AI, referencing specific claims and predictions. The tone is inquisitive, seeking clarification and critique of previous claims.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not cause harm and seeks constructive feedback, aligning with the principle of doing no harm. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    By asking for clarification and critique, the statement promotes understanding and dialogue, aligning with the principle of promoting empathy and compassion. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive criticism by inviting others to point out potential errors, aligning with the principle of engaging in constructive dialogue. [+1]