Gary Marcus

Rank 20 of 47
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Score 57
5/10/2025, 1:55:43 AM
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In reply to:
Daniel Litt
@littmath
·
29d
@GaryMarcus @Wasgo @polynoamial I think it’s a stupid graph. Not sure why you’re asking me to comment on dumb ai hype when I’m discussing a specific (if slightly imprecise) claim about scaling.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
29d
@littmath @Wasgo @polynoamial So where do you fall here?
Vlad Haltakov
@haltakov
·
29d
Unpopular opinion - we are not seeing exponential growth in AI, but rather something more like an S-curve.

While an S-curve has places that look exponential it doesn't go on forever, but saturates. This is what we see with foundational models already.
Daniel Litt
@littmath
·
29d
@GaryMarcus @Wasgo @polynoamial I was out here pointing out it was BS.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
29d
@littmath @Wasgo @polynoamial Where were you when 1000s of influencers a day were chanting “exponential”?
Daniel Litt
@littmath
·
29d
@GaryMarcus @Wasgo @polynoamial This is all consistent with logarithmic growth, which is very slow!
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
29d
@littmath @Wasgo @polynoamial I seriously doubt it at this point. All the labs have leaked that they aren’t getting the results they thought they would, and none of the new models cures the core problems that I have harped for decades.

Largish improvements now are from new techniques and focused data

The statement engages in public discourse by discussing the impact of a widely viewed post on AI, government policy, and investments. It highlights the influence of popular narratives on significant societal decisions.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not directly harm but implies criticism of the influence of popular media on policy, which could be seen as constructive.
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    It does not promote understanding or empathy but raises awareness of the influence of media on policy.
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive criticism of the reliance on popular narratives for policy decisions. [+1]
  4. Principle 6:
    I will use my influence for the betterment of society.
    It uses the platform to highlight the potential misalignment between popular narratives and informed policy-making. [+1]