Gary Marcus

Rank 14 of 47
|
Score 83
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
679d
Prediction: By end of 2024 we will see
• 7-10 GPT-4 level models
• No massive advance (no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5)
• Price wars
• Very little moat for anyone
• No robust solution to hallucinations
• Modest lasting corporate adoption
• Modest profits, split 7-10 ways
5/30/2025, 6:59:59 PM
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In reply to:
MindMirror
@TheMysteryDrop
·
233d
@GaryMarcus Isn't that just a sign of how fast models are improving?

Hard to square this with pessimism over the pace of progress (even if it warrants pessimism over the business model of large cap ex investments that become obselete in a few months)
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
233d
Imagine spending a (few?) billion dollars on a product that generated almost no revenue and isn’t even competitive a few months after its release.

Ouch.
Andriy Burkov
@burkov
·
233d
@BioBayes 3.0 is no longer competitive.

The statement is part of a broader discussion on the development and business models of AI technologies, specifically addressing the pace of progress and the viability of current business models. It engages with public issues related to technological advancement and economic implications, thus constituting public discourse.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not use harmful language and maintains a neutral tone, focusing on technological and business aspects rather than personal attacks. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement promotes understanding by providing a perspective on the limitations of current AI advancements and business models, encouraging a realistic view of the industry's progress. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive criticism by expressing skepticism about the business model and the pace of technological advancement without resorting to personal attacks. [+1]
  4. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement upholds free speech by responsibly sharing an opinion on a public issue, contributing to the dialogue on AI development and business strategies. [+1]