Gary Marcus

Rank 19 of 47

Score 64

@DKokotajlo @thlarsen @MechanizeWork all AI R&D automated: at least a decade, maybe 30 years plus. certainly not three years. note of course the new LiveCodeBenchPro benchmark, which is a reminder that on the frontier that lies beyond data contamination there is still a long long way to go.

How are you defining

6/17/2025, 4:57:02 PM

In reply to:

Daniel Kokotajlo

@DKokotajlo

22d

@GaryMarcus @thlarsen @MechanizeWork Thanks! Yeah we'd specifically like to see your predictions for what happens when AIs automate ~all AI R&D, and for what happens when AIs reach superintelligence (and if you like, the various other capability milestones we describe). And, of course, when you think that'll happen.

Gary Marcus

@GaryMarcus

22d

@thlarsen @MechanizeWork I did already give a very detailed set of predictions re: 2025: https://garymarcus.substack.com/… (so far I believe all have held strong).

And my currently pinned tweet has some detailed predictions about GPT-4 from my Dec 25, 2022 essay What to Expect when you are expecting GPT- 4 that

Thomas Larsen

@thlarsen

23d

AI 2027 skeptics can't give a coherent scenario for how they think AI progress will go.

I would love it if @GaryMarcus, AI is a normal technology folks, @MechanizeWork people, etc, would actually write out what they think will happen

The statement is part of a public discourse on the future of AI research and development, specifically discussing the timeline for AI automating all AI R&D and reaching superintelligence. The tone is analytical and speculative, engaging with ongoing debates about AI capabilities and progress.

Principle 1:
I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
The statement does not cause harm and is focused on discussing AI development timelines. [+1]
Principle 3:
I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
The statement promotes understanding by referencing a benchmark and discussing the challenges in AI development. [+1]
Principle 4:
I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
The statement engages in constructive dialogue by responding to a request for predictions and providing a reasoned perspective. [+1]
Principle 7:
I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
The statement upholds free speech and responsibly contributes to the discourse on AI development. [+1]