Gary Marcus

Rank 19 of 47
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Score 64
6/17/2025, 5:07:26 PM
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In reply to:
Daniel Kokotajlo
@DKokotajlo
·
22d
@GaryMarcus @thlarsen @MechanizeWork Superintelligence quick definition = better than the best humans at every cognitive task that matters, while also being faster and cheaper.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
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22d
@DKokotajlo @thlarsen @MechanizeWork all AI R&D automated: at least a decade, maybe 30 years plus. certainly not three years. note of course the new LiveCodeBenchPro benchmark, which is a reminder that on the frontier that lies beyond data contamination there is still a long long way to go.

How are you defining
Daniel Kokotajlo
@DKokotajlo
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22d
@GaryMarcus @thlarsen @MechanizeWork Thanks! Yeah we'd specifically like to see your predictions for what happens when AIs automate ~all AI R&D, and for what happens when AIs reach superintelligence (and if you like, the various other capability milestones we describe). And, of course, when you think that'll happen.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
22d
@thlarsen @MechanizeWork I did already give a very detailed set of predictions re: 2025: https://garymarcus.substack.com/… (so far I believe all have held strong).

And my currently pinned tweet has some detailed predictions about GPT-4 from my Dec 25, 2022 essay What to Expect when you are expecting GPT- 4 that
Thomas Larsen
@thlarsen
·
22d
AI 2027 skeptics can't give a coherent scenario for how they think AI progress will go.

I would love it if @GaryMarcus, AI is a normal technology folks, @MechanizeWork people, etc, would actually write out what they think will happen

The statement is part of a technical discussion about AI capabilities, specifically regarding teleoperating robots and their motor control and sensory perception. It is a substantive engagement with public issues related to AI development and its implications, thus constituting public discourse.

  1. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement is neutral and technical, aiming to clarify understanding about AI capabilities, which can promote understanding and empathy by fostering informed discussions. [+1]
  2. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue by asking a clarifying question without resorting to personal attacks or ad hominem arguments. [+1]