Gary Marcus

Rank 13 of 47
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Score 95
6/17/2025, 11:13:57 PM
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In reply to:
sophia wright
@sophia_surfs
·
6h
@GaryMarcus sharing in case you haven't seen this post on the success rate on agents:
Benjamin Todd
@ben_j_todd
·
2d
Why can AIs code for 1h but not 10h?

A simple explanation: if there's a 10% chance of error per 10min step (say), the success rate is:

1h: 53%
4h: 8%
10h: 0.002%

@tobyordoxford has tested this 'constant error rate' theory and shown it's a good fit for the data

chance of
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
8h
How can anyone run a story like this and not even mention that in 2016 this same person said (completely wrongly and wildly overconfidently) that it was “completely obvious” that radiologists would be replaced in five years?

The statement is a lighthearted and humorous request for a similar analysis on calculators, likely in response to a discussion about AI capabilities. It does not engage substantively with public issues or contribute to civic dialogue.