Gary Marcus

Rank 19 of 47
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Score 64
6/23/2025, 2:10:40 AM
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In reply to:
Rob Miles (in SF)
@robertskmiles
·
19d
@xriskology @GaryMarcus Yeah, the probability of AI 2027 coming true is extremely low. The company they claim will develop AGI doesn't even exist!
Dr. Émile P. Torres
@xriskology
·
19d
A fantastic, detailed critique by @GaryMarcus of the "AI 2027" forecast. Worth noting that as the plausibility of a story increases, its probability simultaneously falls--every additional "and then" drives the probability down, and this forecast is full of "and then."

The statement and conversation engage in public discourse by discussing the plausibility of an AI forecast, critiquing its assumptions, and evaluating its impact on public understanding of AI development.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The conversation strives to do no harm by focusing on a critique of a forecast rather than individuals. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The discussion promotes understanding by engaging with the specifics of the critique, encouraging a deeper analysis of the AI forecast. [+2]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The participants engage in constructive dialogue, addressing the content of the forecast rather than attacking each other personally. [+2]