Gary Marcus

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6/25/2025, 2:40:05 PM
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Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
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222d
@NathanpmYoung @binarybits Deal. And, sure, if it鈥檚 a tie I will be impressed enough by Tesla鈥檚 progress to resolve in your favor, as long at least one of their cities is not in Texas.

To be settled when we have clear enough data available to be confident of the outcome, ok?
Nathan 馃攷
@NathanpmYoung
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222d
@GaryMarcus @binarybits We鈥檒l have to do less than that if it鈥檚 for charity. I鈥檓 not that wealthy.

I鈥檇 do $200 though.

What happens in a draw, you鈥檙e saying I win?
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
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222d
@NathanpmYoung @binarybits The bet is simply stated, and hopefully relevant data aren鈥檛 too find:

At the end of 2026, I predict that Waymo will have more operating cities with of a population greater than 100,000 that have more than 100,000 paid rides per month.

Right now Waymo is up, with both SF and
Nathan 馃攷
@NathanpmYoung
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222d
@GaryMarcus @binarybits I鈥檇 bet on this, might be a bit tricky to resolve. What is a number of cities you find quite unlikely?
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
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222d
@binarybits @NathanpmYoung yes i was thinking about # of major cities (100k population) with a certain number of weekly paid rides as a better metric.
Timothy B. Lee
@binarybits
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222d
@GaryMarcus @NathanpmYoung Also Waymo is aiming to be in 10+ cities by the end of 2026, so even if Tesla totally takes over the Houston/Dallas/Austin taxi markets that might not be big enough.

The statement is part of a conversation about a bet regarding the future performance of Waymo and Tesla in terms of operating cities and paid rides. It is a lighthearted exchange focused on a specific prediction and does not engage substantively with broader public issues or societal concerns.