Gary Marcus

Rank 11 of 47
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Score 83
6/25/2025, 2:40:33 PM
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In reply to:
Nathan 馃攷
@NathanpmYoung
路
222d
@GaryMarcus @binarybits Sure, happy to allow resolution by someone we both trust. Feel free to name AI people you trust.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
路
222d
@NathanpmYoung @binarybits Deal. And, sure, if it鈥檚 a tie I will be impressed enough by Tesla鈥檚 progress to resolve in your favor, as long at least one of their cities is not in Texas.

To be settled when we have clear enough data available to be confident of the outcome, ok?
Nathan 馃攷
@NathanpmYoung
路
222d
@GaryMarcus @binarybits We鈥檒l have to do less than that if it鈥檚 for charity. I鈥檓 not that wealthy.

I鈥檇 do $200 though.

What happens in a draw, you鈥檙e saying I win?
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
路
222d
@NathanpmYoung @binarybits The bet is simply stated, and hopefully relevant data aren鈥檛 too find:

At the end of 2026, I predict that Waymo will have more operating cities with of a population greater than 100,000 that have more than 100,000 paid rides per month.

Right now Waymo is up, with both SF and
Nathan 馃攷
@NathanpmYoung
路
222d
@GaryMarcus @binarybits I鈥檇 bet on this, might be a bit tricky to resolve. What is a number of cities you find quite unlikely?
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
路
222d
@binarybits @NathanpmYoung yes i was thinking about # of major cities (100k population) with a certain number of weekly paid rides as a better metric.

The statement is part of a conversation about a bet regarding the future performance of autonomous vehicle companies, specifically Waymo and Tesla. The discussion involves predictions about the number of cities with a certain level of autonomous vehicle activity. This conversation touches on public discourse as it involves the future of technology and its societal impact.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not cause harm and is part of a civil discussion about future predictions.聽[+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The conversation promotes understanding of autonomous vehicle technology and its potential impact.聽[+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The dialogue is constructive, with participants engaging in a friendly wager without personal attacks.聽[+1]
  4. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The participants are using their platforms to discuss a relevant technological issue responsibly.聽[+1]