Gary Marcus

Rank 13 of 47
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Score 84
6/27/2025, 2:39:44 PM
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In reply to:
Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh
@S_OhEigeartaigh
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227d
@GaryMarcus I have a $500 bet from a year ago with a colleague that we won't have AGI by 2030. So these estimates better be out by at least 200% or I will lose Money and Standing, which are obviously the most important things in this situation.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
227d
prediction: When AGI doesn’t arrive in 18 months, exactly zero people will admit they were wrong.
Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh
@S_OhEigeartaigh
·
227d
18 months until we learn if the Anthropic folks are high on their own supply, or whether the world is about to become very inexplicable for this jumped-up ape. Still leaning towards the former FWIW. But I'd sleep better if their prediction track record wasn't so good (esp Amodei)

The statement is a lighthearted and humorous response in a conversation about predictions regarding Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). It does not engage substantively with public issues or contribute to civic dialogue, but rather participates in a playful exchange about bets and predictions.