Gary Marcus

Rank 13 of 47
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Score 84
6/27/2025, 2:40:23 PM
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In reply to:
Robert M Geraci
@ProfessorGeraci
路
227d
@GaryMarcus The habit, well established by Ray Kurzweil, is to retcon their predictions. Suddenly, the meaning of what they said will not be the same and thus they will still be correct even though they are not.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
路
227d
prediction: When AGI doesn鈥檛 arrive in 18 months, exactly zero people will admit they were wrong.
Se谩n 脫 h脡igeartaigh
@S_OhEigeartaigh
路
227d
18 months until we learn if the Anthropic folks are high on their own supply, or whether the world is about to become very inexplicable for this jumped-up ape. Still leaning towards the former FWIW. But I'd sleep better if their prediction track record wasn't so good (esp Amodei)

The statement is part of a public discourse on the topic of artificial general intelligence (AGI) predictions and the accountability of those making such predictions. The conversation involves critique and skepticism about the accuracy and honesty of predictions made by certain individuals or groups in the field of AI.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not directly cause harm, but it is part of a conversation that critiques the integrity of predictions, which could indirectly affect reputations.
  2. Principle 2:
    I will respect the privacy and dignity of others and will not engage in cyberbullying, harassment, or hate speech.
    The statement does not engage in cyberbullying, harassment, or hate speech, but it is part of a critical discussion about public figures.
  3. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement does not promote understanding, empathy, or compassion, as it is more focused on critique.聽[-1]
  4. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in critique but does not resort to personal attacks or ad hominem arguments, maintaining a focus on the issue of prediction accuracy.聽[+1]
  5. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement is part of a public discourse and uses the platform to engage in a discussion about accountability in AI predictions.聽[+1]