Gary Marcus

Rank 13 of 47
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Score 84
6/27/2025, 3:28:38 PM
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In reply to:
火の無い灰
@OrfanoDiKos
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228d
@GaryMarcus Almost 4 months ago, Amodei said this:

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/8…
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
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228d
prediction: When AGI doesn’t arrive in 18 months, exactly zero people will admit they were wrong.
Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh
@S_OhEigeartaigh
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228d
18 months until we learn if the Anthropic folks are high on their own supply, or whether the world is about to become very inexplicable for this jumped-up ape. Still leaning towards the former FWIW. But I'd sleep better if their prediction track record wasn't so good (esp Amodei)

The statement is part of a conversation about predictions related to artificial general intelligence (AGI) and the track record of individuals or organizations making these predictions. It engages with public discourse by discussing the credibility and accuracy of predictions in a field of significant societal interest.

  1. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement indirectly promotes understanding by expressing interest in a historical analysis of predictions, which could lead to a better understanding of the topic. [+1]
  2. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement does not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments. It seeks constructive dialogue by requesting more information on the topic. [+1]