Gary Marcus

Rank 13 of 47
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Score 84
6/27/2025, 3:30:21 PM
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In reply to:
Idol Worshipping Heathen
@iwheathen
·
228d
@GaryMarcus Why is it important? LLMs are already so useful and they will probably get even more useful in 18 months
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
228d
prediction: When AGI doesn’t arrive in 18 months, exactly zero people will admit they were wrong.
Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh
@S_OhEigeartaigh
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228d
18 months until we learn if the Anthropic folks are high on their own supply, or whether the world is about to become very inexplicable for this jumped-up ape. Still leaning towards the former FWIW. But I'd sleep better if their prediction track record wasn't so good (esp Amodei)

The statement is part of a broader discussion on the timeline and utility of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and large language models (LLMs). It engages with public discourse on the development and impact of AI technologies.

  1. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement does not actively promote understanding, empathy, or compassion, but it does engage in a technical discussion about AGI and LLMs.
  2. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive dialogue by addressing a point made in the conversation without resorting to personal attacks or ad hominem arguments. [+1]
  3. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement upholds the principles of free speech and contributes to the discussion on AI responsibly. [+1]