Gary Marcus

Rank 13 of 47
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Score 84
6/27/2025, 11:58:37 PM
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In reply to:
Nathan 🔎
@NathanpmYoung
·
230d
@GaryMarcus If I talked to @Kalshi to get prediction markets on these would you bet/retweet any of them? I guess you could give the money to charity if you won?
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
230d
Nine June 2029 AI predictions — from someone who was basically 7/7 on 2024:

1. The LLM race will be basically a tie between China and U.S.

2. Pure LLMs will still hallucinate (alternative architectures may do better).

3. Pure LLMs will still make stupid errors (alternative
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
705d
Prediction: By end of 2024 we will see
• 7-10 GPT-4 level models
• No massive advance (no GPT-5, or disappointing GPT-5)
• Price wars
• Very little moat for anyone
• No robust solution to hallucinations
• Modest lasting corporate adoption
• Modest profits, split 7-10 ways

The statement is part of a conversation about AI predictions and the potential use of prediction markets to bet on these outcomes. It involves public figures discussing future technological developments, which can be considered public discourse as it engages with societal issues related to technology and its impact.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not cause harm with words or actions, as it is a neutral comment about the feasibility of participating in prediction markets from Canada.
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement does not actively promote understanding, empathy, or compassion, but it does not detract from these values either.
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement is part of a constructive dialogue about AI predictions and does not involve personal attacks or ad hominem arguments. [+1]
  4. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement upholds the principles of free speech and uses the platform responsibly, engaging in a discussion about public issues. [+1]