Gary Marcus

Rank 13 of 47

Score 115

@peterwildeford 8-15 and we might reach an agreement. 4 still seems awfully unlikely to me. to many core cognitive problems aren’t really being addressed, and solutions may take a while to roll once we find the basic insights we are lacking.

but it’s a fair question.

9/5/2025, 11:25:41 PM

In reply to:

Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀

@peterwildeford

@GaryMarcus what if I think AGI is 4-15 years away?

Gary Marcus

@GaryMarcus

65d

Anyone who thinks AGI is impossible: wrong.

Anyone who thinks AGI is imminent: just as wrong.

It’s not that complicated.

The statement is part of a discussion on the timeline for achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), a significant public issue in technology and ethics. The tone is analytical and speculative, expressing skepticism about the near-term feasibility of AGI due to unresolved cognitive challenges.

Principle 1:
I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
The statement does no harm and is a reasoned contribution to the debate on AGI timelines. [+1]
Principle 3:
I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
It promotes understanding by acknowledging the complexity of AGI development and the need for basic insights. [+1]
Principle 4:
I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
The statement engages constructively with differing opinions, suggesting a willingness to reach an agreement. [+1]