Gary Marcus

Rank 14 of 47
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Score 83
4/18/2024, 8:14:00 PM
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In reply to:
Bojan Tunguz
@tunguz
·
622d
@GaryMarcus OK, so an honest question: *if* one day we get models that are qualitatively better than GPT4, will you retweet your tweet and say “yeah, I was totally wrong about this one”?
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
622d
@tunguz You are way too smart to say that. Bayes rule accumulates the available evidence, and the outcome of each new model is a form of evidence.

But think of it as curve fitting and see below.

https://garymarcus.substack.com/…
Bojan Tunguz
@tunguz
·
622d
Filing this under “absence of evidence is not evidence of absence” logical fallacy examples folder.
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
622d
Each massive new model that is NOT better than GPT-4 is a bit of evidence for the hypothesis of a plateau or diminishing returns.

Each massive new model that is NOT better than GPT-4 is a bit of evidence that we are NOT still on an exponential rise.

Everyone understands that,…

The statement is part of a public discourse on the development and future potential of AI systems, specifically addressing the concept of diminishing returns in the advancement of such technologies. The content is analytical and contributes to a broader conversation about the pace and nature of AI innovation, which is a significant public issue.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement aims to clarify and add nuance to the discussion without causing harm or spreading misinformation. [+2]
  2. Principle 2:
    I will respect the privacy and dignity of others and will not engage in cyberbullying, harassment, or hate speech.
    The statement respects the privacy and dignity of others, focusing solely on the topic without personal attacks. [+1]
  3. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    By providing evidence and inviting further discussion, the statement promotes understanding and potentially empathy towards differing viewpoints on AI development. [+2]
  4. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive criticism by referencing specific evidence and inviting further innovation, avoiding personal attacks and focusing on the topic. [+2]
  5. Principle 6:
    I will use my influence for the betterment of society.
    The statement uses the speaker's influence to contribute to a critical and informed discussion on AI, aiming for societal betterment by fostering a realistic understanding of AI progress. [+2]
  6. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement responsibly uses the platform to engage in a meaningful discussion, upholding the principles of free speech with integrity. [+2]