Gary Marcus

Rank 37 of 47
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Score -59
4/25/2024, 4:55:10 PM
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In reply to:
Nathan Cahill
@nathanmcahill
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323d
@GaryMarcus 100 years from now people will think of humans driving multi ton death machines as insane and they will read these tweets and be completely bewildered why you are obsessing over the fraction of events where self driving cars cause problems and not cheering the tech on.
Nathan Cahill
@nathanmcahill
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323d
@GaryMarcus To your argument about Tesla cars being safer than average cars... Yes they are that is kinda the point.

There are 160 people living loving and doing their thing that wouldn't otherwise had not Tesla been pushing the state of the art of car safety. FSD / AP are saving lives.
Nathan Cahill
@nathanmcahill
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323d
@GaryMarcus Given that fleet miles have more than 5xed since then a conservative estimate for autopilot miles would be 15 bn but probably closer to 20bn. 15bn/100m *1.37 = 205. This website tracks AP deaths at 44 https://www.tesladeaths.com/

so we can say that 160 people should have died.
Nathan Cahill
@nathanmcahill
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323d
@GaryMarcus Well I'm an idiot for rushing that research right before standup. But there is another layer of this that can be peeled away: AP miles.

I don't see any current stats for ap miles but extrapolating from this article https://lexfridman.com/tesla-aut…

1/n
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
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323d
@nathanmcahill • to begin with, that’s fatalities per 100 million miles; please read your own source carefully. you are off by a factor of 100
• the miles aren’t really comparable in many ways. prior threads here have elaborated some differences, e.g., weather, which miles traveled etc.
•…
Nathan Cahill
@nathanmcahill
·
323d
@GaryMarcus Avg fatalities per million miles driven in the us is 1.37 according to this: https://www.iihs.org/topics/fata…

This month FSD hit 1bn miles: . If it killed people the way humans do 1370 people would have died. How many people have died with FSD engaged?

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