Gary Marcus

Rank 28 of 47
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Score 37
7/10/2024, 1:53:36 PM
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In reply to:
Leon Lang
@Lang__Leon
·
104d
@GaryMarcus @wellingmax Not disagreeing, but two comments:
— it took ~3 years from gpt3 to 4, maybe the same happens with 4 to 5 for similar capability increase
— many people at labs don’t say “scaling is all you need” but “we are working hard on algor. improvements, that plus scaling is all we need”
Gary Marcus
@GaryMarcus
·
104d
Please don’t reduce the greatest scientific-engineering question of our time—will scaling take us to AGI?—to a kind of “he-said, she-said”, as the otherwise brilliant @wellingmax does below.

Instead, consider the actual evidence.

•  Although we saw massive leaps from GPT-2 to…
Max Welling
@wellingmax
·
104d
As I read these posts I find it intriguing to see how confident people are about their beliefs; on both sides, while the future fate of AI seems truly very uncertain to me. I see parallels with religion (my God the only real one). At least one must have badly calibrated beliefs.

The statement constitutes public discourse as it engages in a substantive discussion about the future of AI, specifically the debate on whether scaling current AI models will lead to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The tone is analytical and inquisitive, seeking to understand the empirical evidence and the progress in the field.

  1. Principle 1:
    I will strive to do no harm with my words and actions.
    The statement does not appear to cause harm; it is a reasoned inquiry into the progress of AI research. [+1]
  2. Principle 3:
    I will use my words and actions to promote understanding, empathy, and compassion.
    The statement promotes understanding by asking for evidence and intermediate results, which can foster a more informed discussion. [+1]
  3. Principle 4:
    I will engage in constructive criticism and dialogue with those in disagreement and will not engage in personal attacks or ad hominem arguments.
    The statement engages in constructive criticism by questioning the lack of impressive intermediate results without resorting to personal attacks. [+1]
  4. Principle 7:
    I will uphold the principles of free speech and use my platform responsibly and with integrity.
    The statement upholds free speech and uses the platform responsibly by contributing to a meaningful debate on a significant public issue. [+1]